New Statistical Model Developed To Predict Future Medical Conditions

Please remember, just because something is predicted doesn’t mean it is going to happen!

Still, this seems to be a good “tool”.

 

From the 6 June 2012 article at Medical News Today

Analyzing medical records from thousands of patients, statisticians have devised a statistical model for predicting what other medical problems a patient might encounter.

Like how Netflix recommends movies and TV shows or how Amazon.com suggests products to buy, the algorithm makes predictions based on what a patient has already experienced as well as the experiences of other patients showing a similar medical history.

“This provides physicians with insights on what might be coming next for a patient, based on experiences of other patients. It also gives a predication that is interpretable by patients,” said Tyler McCormick, an assistant professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington.

The algorithm will be published in an upcoming issue of the journal Annals of Applied Statistics. McCormick’s co-authors are Cynthia Rudin, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, and David Madigan, Columbia University.

McCormick said that this is one of the first times that this type of predictive algorithm has been used in a medical setting. What differentiates his model from others, he said, is that it shares information across patients who have similar health problems. This allows for better predictions when details of a patient’s medical history are sparse.

Related articles

• New statistical model lets patient’s past forecast future ailments (esciencenews.com)
• Algorithm Predicts Future Medical Conditions – Works Somewhat Like Netflix Based on Patient and Other Patient Experiences – Good for Clinical Arena and Words of Caution With Potential “For Profit” Utilization (ducknetweb.blogspot.com)
• Beware of False Positives (infocus.emc.com)
• False Positive Science: Why We Can’t Predict the Future (freakonomics.com)